Friday, October 17, 2014


As we celebrate our 10th anniversary at AngelsWin.com we've focused our attention on our writers, contributors, moderators & website members. Today we put the spotlight on our moderator, contest admin and long time member, Tom Anderson. Tom, who goes by "tomsred" on our forum is both an active contributor in discussions and has headed up our Gameday Prediction Thread contests over the past few years. Tom attends nearly every charity event and our popular fanfest events all year round and is just an overall great guy!  

Let's get to know Tom a bit more in today's Member Appreciation Interview.

AngelsWin.com: When and how did you first come to AngelsWin.com?

(tomsred): I used to participate on the Angels' official site message board for a few years. There got to be too many personal insults between posters, and then I found AngelsWin a few years ago. I'm happy we have a code of conduct, and good moderation. I also think the quality and depth of the posts here are far superior to any other baseball site I've found, plus all the wonderful articles and interviews are great too. It's also a wonderful way to keep up with the young players in the system.

AngelsWin.com: What keeps you coming back to the site?

(tomsred): It's like a one stop shop for anything and everything related to Angels news. If the news breaks, we get it posted here first with lots of good analysis. My wife became interested in baseball later in her life, but now it's her number one sport (it's been fun to see her so into it), and I like to get the news first before she does. It always disappoints her when I find out something Angels' related before she does. 

AngelsWin.com: What have been some of your favorite articles and threads?

(tomsred): This site has some terrific and imaginative writers, I like the really funny ones. I don't like to take baseball too seriously, but I'm still passionate about the Angels. I actually think baseball is a great sport to have fun with, so I love the funny stories that get posted, and especially all the great pictures and videos that frequently show up.

AngelsWin.com: What in-person events have you attended from AngelsWin.com (Spring/Summer Fanfests, Charity Golf, Charity Softball)?

(tomsred): My wife and I like to go to Tempe for Spring training, We go to the Spring Fanfest and a few games. I've done the charity golf, and the tailgate hangouts are great too. I gave up softball a number of years ago after I ruptured my right calf trying to decide whether to run to second, or return to first, on sinking line drive in a company softball game. The result wasn't good! I'm a Vietnam veteran, so I learned early in life to protect my body from bad stuff.

AngelsWin.com: Why is AngelsWin.com your internet home for the Angels?

(tomsred): It's so comprehensive and it's fun to have a specific interest like this that can be shared with others that have a similar passion. I am always amazed over the angles that some of these discussions can take, but I particularly like the ones that get on a roll and really poke fun at something. Some of you have a vivid imagination!

AngelsWin.com: In your opinion, what is AngelsWin.com’s best feature: the articles, charitable events, game-day chat, message boards, Fanfests, podcasts, etc?

(tomsred): Well, I like the message board (The Angels Daily is virtually the only message board I participate in anywhere). It's really great that this site has found some great charities to support, there are lots of needs in this community, so I would encourage that. The Spring training Fanfest is fantastic too, and it has really, really grown into a terrific event.

Ligther Side


AngelsWin.com: Where do you live and what do you do?

(tomsred): I live in Newport Coast. I am a retired Chief Financial Officer from several public companies in the military, aerospace, and computer industries. I work part time as a Corporate Director of a large semiconductor and electronic systems company in Orange County today. On the personal side, I like playing golf, and traveling in the Western U.S. with my wife and our two terrier dogs.

AngelsWin.com: Why are you an Angels fan?

(tomsred): I moved to Southern California from the Midwest in 1978, and instantly found Nolan Ryan and company, and I adopted them. I was living in Camarillo, and I could barely get the games on the radio, so I endured a lot of buzzing in my head from trying to position my transistor radio close to my ear for best reception. The big treat was going to the Stadium for a few games each year, but wow what a tough drive, and late night's before a work day, those were.

AngelsWin.com: What was your first Angels game that you remember? Who’d you go with?

(tomnsred): I'm sure it was in 1978, but I don't honestly remember. My very first game was to watch the Cincinnati Reds with my dad in their old Crosley Field, I never saw so many beer signs on a wall before, and everyone was smoking. I loved my baseball card collection, but it's all gone now. When we moved from Ohio to Michigan, my cards never got packed, I carried them in the car the whole way. The baseball game I remember the most was a game my wife and I attended in Chicago (while living there) in 1972, It was a White Sox doubleheader, and it was cold and rainy. My wife was pregnant, and the next day she gave birth to our daughter. That's baseball, it will even induce child birth, LOL.

AngelsWin.com: Who have been your favorite players? Why? Any great stories or interactions with them?

(tomsred): My favorite for many years was Brian Downing, and I still have his jersey. I try to wear it once each year, but it's getting harder and harder to put on. I hope it's because it shrinks every time it gets washed, but reality says that's a pipe dream. I never get tired of the Angels video of Brian Downing and Fred Lynn crashing together in the outfield against the fence that is in the pre-game video. That's Brian, he was all about winning, and going all out, all the time. Stradling and I have good taste when it comes to favorite players.

AngelsWin.com: How do you survive the offseason?

(tomsred): It's hard on me. I am not a big football nut, but I do like some college football, especially following Michigan State, where I went to college. I don't like hockey, and pro basketball isn't big on my list either. So I spend lots of time playing golf, chasing my two terriers around, and watching the MLB channel speculate on any and everything baseball related. But after a couple of months of the MLB channel in the off season watching that gets pretty old.

AngelsWin.com: What’s one thing you’d like everyone in AngelsWin.com to know about you?

(tomsred): I think laughter keeps you young, and I enjoy hanging out on the Angels Daily, telling funny stories, and sharing funny videos and pictures. I've also enjoyed administrating the Prediction Game threads and scoring it the past few years, it's been fun seeing a lot of folks get into it. In 2015 we hope to simplify and break it up it a bit with a new format, and get even more posters to participate than ever before. 

Wednesday, October 15, 2014


As we celebrate our 10th anniversary at AngelsWin.com we've focused our attention on our writers, contributors & website members. Today we put the spotlight on our resident mom, BaseballMom. Jody has been to almost every spring and summer fanfest event we've had to date, including our annual softball tournaments that benefits our favorite charity, the OC Miracle League. Mom, as many of us call her, is a passionate Angels fan and friend of many from the website. 

Let's get to know BaseballMom a bit more in today's Member Appreciation Interview.

AngelsWin.com: When and how did you first come to AngelsWin.com?

BaseballMom: I came over in the mass exodus from the OMB ("Original Message Board" off of the Angels official website).  Lee was still in full swing over there and nobody could resist responding to him. It was too bad because some of us had a really good time over there for quite a few years. Some of the members here posted on a site called HaloHaven...no, not that one...we were dotnet. 

AngelsWin.com:  What keeps you coming back to the site?

BaseballMom: I enjoy reading the back and forth on the forum.  Our board members are really quite entertaining.  

AngelsWin.com:  What have been some of your favorite articles and threads?

BaseballMom: My favorite articles right now are the Point/Counter Point with Nate and Glen or the Shenanigans threads by DR. That's some pretty funny/moving stuff.  I enjoyed some of the classic threads: Common Courtesy, Furniture Sex, etc. I really like reading the old threads.  They bring up some great memories.  One thread that will stick with me forever though is the Nick Adenhart thread the day we found out that he died. I was devastated and the board was like a haven to me that day.  I could say what was in my heart and knew that everyone would understand.  Thanks for that.

AngelsWin.com:  What in-person events have you attended from AngelsWin.com (Spring/Summer Fanfests, Charity Golf, Charity Softball)?

BaseballMom: I have attended most of the events since 2009 when I met a bunch of you crazy peeps. I had been going to spring training with my friend Gail since 2005, but made my first visit to Hail Mary's that year.  I remember sitting on the patio afterward and drinking absinthe shots before heading over to The Library.  Spring fanfest has changed a bit since then. I am the "BaseballMom" to a bunch of the younger members on the site and I treasure that relationship with all of them.  I even brought orange slices to the softball game once. 

AngelsWin.com:  Why is AngelsWin.com your internet home for the Angels?

BaseballMom: Even though I don't post as much as I used to, I read the board almost every day.  Like Stradling said, I have come to know what people will say on most subjects and it's fun to see if I am right. I am pretty sure that most people on the board are also correct in predicting which side of the fence I will land on as well.  

AngelsWin.com:  In your opinion, what is AngelsWin.com’s best feature: the articles, charitable events, game-day chat, message boards, Fanfests, podcasts, etc?

BaseballMom:  The message board and the Fanfests are my favorite things. I have made some good friends through this site and it's a lot of fun to get together in person to catch a game or whatever.  I really like that we have added the charity fundraising to our events.  Several of the teachers in my district coach RBI and love it.


Lighter Side


AngelsWin.com:  Where do you live and what do you do?

BaseballMom: I live in Westminster (or shit town as Adam would say) and work at the Westminster School District.  Living 7 minutes away from work is awesome.  My official title is Educational Services Technician, which really means that I do a little bit of everything. I have 4 kids and 2 granddaughters, so now I am also a BaseballMeemaw. 

AngelsWin.com: Why are you an Angels fan?

BaseballMom: Growing up in Orange County with a Dad who was heavily involved in the Westminster Little League, it was a natural.  They are my hometown team.

AngelsWin.com:  What was your first Angels game that you remember? Who’d you go with?

BaseballMom:  I am way too old to remember that...lol. It probably was a group family/little league event.  

AngelsWin.com:  Who have been your favorite players? Why? Any great stories or interactions with them?

BaseballMom:  Does anyone have a guess here?  =)  One of my favorite players was/is John Lackey. Whatever you might think of him, GAME 7 PEOPLE!!!!!!  Of course Downing, Carew, Joyner etc.  I remember going to games and paying very little to sit wherever we wanted. Got Speez to sign my cardboard World Series "crown" at Throwbacks, that was awesome.  He also signed a birthday card for Cassy.

AngelsWin.com:  How do you survive the offseason?

BaseballMom:  This board and MLB Network really help.  I love watching Hot Stove, even though Harold Reynolds drives me crazy sometimes. I catch up on shows that I haven't been able to watch during the season.  And best of all, I spend time with my granddaughter who lives with me.  Having a 4 year old around is never boring.

AngelsWin.com: What’s one thing you’d like everyone in AngelsWin.com to know about you?

BaseballMom:  Even though I am pretty sarcastic most of the time, I really am a big sap.  That said, I never ever post videos of puppies or kittens on fFacebook

Friday, October 10, 2014


As we celebrate our 10th anniversary at AngelsWin.com we've focused our attention on our writers, contributors & website members. Today we put the spotlight on one of our longest tenured members, who is also one of our moderators and a member on our advisory team. Scott Stradling has been a tremendous contributor behind the scenes, helping coordinate and facilitate during our spring and summer fanfest events, as well as contributing to our efforts financially and to our favorite charities. Stradling is also an annual participant in our softball tournaments, a tremendous player in his own right. 

Let's get to know Stradling a bit more in today's Member Appreciation Interview.

AngelsWin.com: When and how did you first come to AngelsWin.com?

Scott Stradling: I was posting on AOL, ESPN and the MLB site a little bit, not enough to actually be noticed or to create an identity.  I just went there for rumors and to see what other fans thought of the team, and to see what was new with Lee.  I got an email from Chuck telling me about his new website and checked it out.  It took me at least a couple of years before I was a regular poster.  At some point, a few years ago, I found my stride and have been posting with regularity ever since.   
  
AngelsWin.com:  What keeps you coming back to the site?

Scott Stradling: Very simple, its the people.  The personalities and the sense of humor on this site is second to none.  I have been active enough the last few years that I almost know what everyone’s opinions are going to be on any given topic on the main forum.  This place truly is a community or a family with all of the bickering and good natured fun.  

AngelsWin.com:  What have been some of your favorite articles and threads?

Scott Stradling: My favorite articles are probably the Point and Counter Point.  I still love to look back at how excited we all were when we signed Albert.  That happened during a tough time in my life, and I was on a work retreat and woke up and opened AngelsWin and was reading the thread around 6am, and hit refresh and it said we had signed him.  A few of my favorite threads are in the hangout forum.  Any and all Weekend Shenanigans by DR are amazing and are worth a second read. I loved the thread that had all of the graphs, I can’t recall the name of it, but it had things like “Things Meatloaf would do for love”  or the chart on “Doves Cry”, maybe it was called, “The Results are in”. It was a brilliant thread.   

AngelsWin.com:  What in-person events have you attended from AngelsWin.com (Spring/Summer Fanfests, Charity Golf, Charity Softball)?

Scott Stradling: I have been involved in the Softball a few years now, sadly I missed this last one.  I have been to Spring and Summer Fanfest.  I am a big fan of all of these events.  I love the softball, because it is something fun and competitive and now the last couple of years we have made it a charity event.  I haven’t been up to Seattle for RiverRaft yet, but I will some day.  For those who haven’t attended SpringFanFest, you truly have to make this happen.  Being up close and personal with the Angels players and management was truly an amazing experience.  One more thing about Softball, my first interaction with Chuck was on the softball field.  We were playing at Hart Park and I had never met Chuck in person.  Chuck is playing short stop and I hit a double (probably a two base error, but I will call it a double).  I am standing on 2nd and Chuck walks up and introduces himself, I tell him my name and he gives me a big ol’ gay hug.  It was pretty awesome.  

AngelsWin.com:  Why is AngelsWin.com your internet home for the Angels?

Scott Stradling: Why wouldn’t it be?  Honestly, is there anyone who does it better than we do here at AW?  If you want articles, we have that.  If you want commentary, we got that.  If you want access to players and minor leagues, we got that.  If you want a boatload of pictures of cats or a 35 page argument about Israel vs Hamas we got that as well.   

AngelsWin.com: In your opinion, what is AngelsWin.com’s best feature: the articles, charitable events, game-day chat, message boards, Fanfests, podcasts, etc?

Scott Stradling: This is a tough one, because I appreciate them all.  My favorite articles are the Point and Counter Point or anything nostalgic that reminds me of my childhood.  I obviously love the softball tournament like I mentioned before.  Fanfests are incredible and should be on everyone’s Angels Bucket List.  As you all know I am pretty active on the message boards, I have been called a NutSwinger, an Apologist,  an Instigator, even a YesMan for all things Chuck and Angelswin. and at one time or another I have been all of those things, but through it all, I have always been and always will be a fan of the Angels, through thick and thin.   


Ligther Side


AngelsWin.com:  Where do you live and what do you do?

Scott Stradling: I live in Chino, California, and have for almost 20 years.  I moved out here at the age of 23 when I bought my first house.  I am a divisional manager for In n Out Burger, which is an amazing company to work for and is the perfect first job for your son or daughter.  I have been with the company for 25 years and I couldn’t be happier with my choice in life.  

AngelsWin.com: Why are you an Angels fan?

Scott Stradling: I grew up in Anaheim until about the age of 16, then I moved around a bit.  My family consisted of my dad, mom, older sister and two older brothers, I was the baby in the family.  My dad was a taxi cab driver in Anaheim and there were nights when he would pick up players from the stadium and take them wherever they needed to go.  My dad would have his transistor radio and listen to the games while he was in the cab.  One night my dad goes to the stadium during the game to pick up a player.  Reggie was having a big night for us.  My dad picks up the player and starts to talk to him about the game.  My dad says to the guy, “Reggie sure is having a good night tonight, has a couple of home runs”, they guy says to my dad,”Yea, and one of them was off of me”.  It was Ron Guidry.  Like I said I had two older brothers, one a Dodger Fan and the other an Angel fan.  I was closer to Doug, the Angel fan, so that is the direction I took.  Doug is an active poster as well, his name on here is Splint.  He is the #1 reason I love baseball and the Angels.  My brother Paul, passed away 9 years ago this week after a fight with cancer, he was buried in a Dodger Jersey, I had given him the previous year for Christmas.  I have been a fanatic about the Angels for the last 20 years, having season tickets for every year, but one since then.  My two sons, Scottie and Jacob, have never missed an opening day.    

AngelsWin.com:  What was your first Angels game that you remember? Who’d you go with?

Scott Stradling: I really don’t recall my first game, my dad told me he remembers me going up and down the stairs in the upper deck around the age of 18 months.  My first baseball memories puts me in the Yes We Can season of 79, but I don’t have vivid enough memories to share those.  I am sure I went to the game with my dad and brothers.  I do remember in the early 80’s they would have family night where tickets were very affordable.  The entire upper deck (400 section and 500 section) would be general admission.  My dad would buy us all tickets and then us boys would run up the ramps to get the best seats we could, which would usually be behind home plate, which is the 418 section or there a bouts now.  

AngelsWin.com:  Who have been your favorite players? Why? Any great stories or interactions with them?

Scott Stradling: My first favorite player was Brian Downing, I just loved the way he went all out on every play.  Then I would have to say Tim Salmon.  I remember going to get autographs for my son when he was probably about 4 years old.  He is up on my shoulders and Salmon comes out to sign a few autographs, out behind the stadium where they park their cars.  He sees my son on top of my shoulders and comes out and hands him his wrist bands from that game, I will never forget that.  I also remember a time when Butcher was pitching for us, out in that same area after a game, where he got in a fans face for being disrespectful to Rod Carew, who was our hitting coach at the time.  It was pretty awesome.  

AngelsWin.com:  How do you survive the offseason?

Scott Stradling: Simply put, Angelswin.  I am the guy that only has one hobby and it is the Angels. While I like sports, nothing truly attracts me like the Angels.  The only other thing I do more during the offseason is read.  A few authors I like to read are David Baldacci, Vince Flynn and Dan Brown.  

AngelsWin.com: What’s one thing you’d like everyone in AngelsWin.com to know about you?

Scott Stradling: I have very few loves in my life, I love my family, I love the company I work for, and I love the Angels, depending on the day, the order of those might be different.  When someone doesn’t love baseball, I almost feel sorry for them, because they don’t quite know what they are missing.  


By Jonathan Northrop, AngelsWin.com Columnist - 

A Bittersweet MVP
It happens sometimes: A great player misses out on an MVP award (or, in this case, two) for whatever reason, and then has an inferior campaign the following year and wins it. A classic case was Alex Rodriguez in 2003; in the previous year he was by far the best player in the AL but lost out to Miguel Tejada. In 2003 he was still the best player in the league but didn't have as good a year as in 2002.

And so we come to Mike Trout, who after a historic first two years in which he not only led the majors in fWAR, but surpassed 10 in each year, and still finished second in MVP both times. Certainly, Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown in 2012 and then was even better in 2013, but overall Trout was the better player.

In 2014 Trout will almost certainly earn his first MVP award, and deservedly so – at least if we look at the overall numbers. Once again he led the majors in fWAR, but his overall game did not shine as brightly as in the last two years. A few things tarnished the luster of his shine: One, his already-existing propensity to strike out went through the roof. Secondly, he lost a tick on his leg speed which was clearly a factor in far fewer stolen bases (down from 49 in 2012, 33 in 2013, and 16 in 2014) and diminished defense. A third factor which is rarely mentioned is that he walked less, 27 times less to be exact, but still more than in 2012.

Mike Trout finished with a .287/.377/.561 line, including career highs in HR (36) and RBI (111), but also strikeouts (184). His WAR—according to either Baseball Reference (7.9) or Fangraphs (7.8)--was the lowest of his career, although still good enough to lead the majors. While Trout's fWAR dropped a rather startling 2.7 from 2013's 10.5, he still remained a solid 1.0 above the next best player (Andrew McCutchen, 6.8) and now, over the three years he's been a full-time player, has a rather commanding lead over the rest of the pack (28.4 to #2 McCutchen at 21.8). In other words, Trout remains the best player in the game, even if the gap in 2014 is less than it was in 2012 and 2013.

Looking a bit deeper at his numbers, there are some worrisome trends. While Trout's power was significantly up (his Isolated Power, or SLG minus AVG, was .274, up from .236 in 2012-13), it was at the expense of a higher strikeout rate (26.1% compared to 20.3% in 2012-13), and thus both a reduced BA (.287 compared to .324) and OBP (.377 compared to .416). In other words, Trout hit more HR per at-bat, but at the expense of more strikeouts and, consequently, a lower batting average.

As a hitter and hitter only, Trout took a step back in 2014 (167 OPS+) from 2013 (179 OPS+) but was similar in value to 2012 (168 OPS+), albeit in a different way. But if we factor in Trout's defense and base-running, we see further decline in 2014 from 2012-13, which may or may not be related to his drop in hitting from 2013. According to Jeff Sullivan, Trout's foot speed—while still excellent—was slower than in previous years. Couple that with his upper-cut swing, we are seeing fewer ground balls (33.9% last year, 41.4% in 2013), fewer line-drives (18.9% in 2014, 23% in 2013), more fly-balls (47.2% in 2014, 35.6% in 2013), more infield fly balls (7.4% in 2014, 3.7% in 2013), fewer infield base hits (23 in 2014, 31 in 2013) and again, plenty more strikeouts (184 in 2014, 136 in 2013). And let me put that another way: Mike Trout struck out 48 more times in 2014 than he did in 2013 in almost the same number of plate appearances (705 in 2014, 716 in 2013). A 48 strikeout increase is rather significant.

One of the qualities that has set Trout apart from the crowd in his short career is his incredible ability to adjust, even within a single game. Yet for whatever reason, this ability was lacking in 2014. While his first half numbers were great (.310/.400/.606, 186 wRC+) and spoke of a positive swapping of some average for more power, he struggled in the second half (.257/.347/.502, 141 wRC+), and his strikeouts shot through the roof – from 23.3% to 30%. For those following the Angels on a daily basis, you will remember that whenever it seemed Trout had broken out of his slump and gone on a tear for a few days, he slipped back into handfuls of multiple-strikeout and “0-for” games. Looking back on the second half, it looks less like a long slump that was adjusted to, and more like a binge-and-purge cycle. In other words, what is most worrisome of all is the fact that in the second half as pitchers realized and exploited his vulnerability for high fastballs, Trout did not adjust, and what initially seemed like a July slump turned into a rest-of-the-year downturn. 

So what lies ahead for Trout? This question is, of course, unanswerable. But we can speculate. I'd like to posit three possible outcomes, at least for the near future, with projected stats for a typical healthy season over the course of his Angels contract.

A Rosy-Colored Future
Imagine this: Trout keeps his power and dominance of the first part of 2014, but levels his swing out a bit and adjusts to high fastballs, as well as continues to improve in small ways. The net result is that he reduces his strikeouts by 20-30%, back down to a still-high but acceptable 120-140 a year, his batting average jumps back up, but he keeps most or all of his increased power. Oh yeah, in this scenario he also starts stealing bases again – maybe not 49, but certainly 30ish. We then see a nice run of 30-30 seasons, maybe even a 40-40 season or two.

In this view, Trout will end up as one of the best players in baseball history. While even in this scenario it is unlikely that he reaches the fWAR totals of Willie Mays (149.9) or Ty Cobb (149.3), he could end up somewhere between #4 Mickey Mantle (112.3) and #3 Tris Speaker (130.6). Not too shabby.

Projected Yearly Peak Stats: .320/.430/.620, 35-40 HR, 30 SB, 9-10+ WAR

The Chicken Little Scenario
Let's say Trout simply can't adjust to high heat and remains entranced by his golf-swing, and continues to strikeout at the alarming, Dunnian rate of the second half (consider that Trout's second half K-rate of 30% was worse than Dunn's career rate of 28.6%). Not only do Trout's BA and OBP not rebound, but they are revealed to be more similar to his second half numbers than his season totals. Even in this worst-case scenario he remains a very good, even semi-great ballplayer, but he isn't the same player we've seen in 2012 through the first half of 2014, but closer to the player we saw in the second half of 2014. Oh yeah, in addition he continues to focus on strength training and, in bulking up further, loses more speed, his defense worsening so that he eventually transitions to LF.

In this view, Trout is no longer the best player in baseball, although remains one of the better center fielders. He'd still have a chance at the Hall of Fame, but would end up with a career more comparable to Ken Griffey Jr (77.3 fWAR) than Mantle or Mays.

Projected Yearly Peak Stats: .270/.360/.520, 30 HR, 15 SB, 5-6 WAR

Everything in Moderation
Or there's the Middle Way, which some call the easy way out, unless you're a Buddhist and then it is simply common sense. The moderate view is closer to the optimistic one than the pessimistic one; I mean, we must remember that he's only 23 years old, and the vast majority of 23 year olds actually improve or, if they don't improve, don't get significantly worse. But the moderate view accounts for Trout being an actual mortal, and takes the perspective that he's got a serious hole in his game—his propensity to strikeout—that we simply might have to live with (even in the best-case scenario I don't see him dropping below about 120-130 Ks a year), and that some age-related decline in speed and defense is inevitable, but can be slow.

So in this view his strikeouts drop a bit, but more into the 140-160 range. 150 Ks is still a lot, but imagine if he has swapped 35 of his Ks this year for contact and kept the same overall rates. Doing some quick calculations, he would have hit about .300/.390/.570 with 39 HR and 90 walks and an fWAR around 8.5. 

In this scenario, his average rises a bit, but not back to the near-batting champion level we saw in 2012-13, ranging from .290-.310 in most seasons. He keeps most of his power, his speed stays about the same except for slight and gradual age-related decline in the second half of his 20s and 30s. He probably steals a few more bases than in 2014, but not back to 2012-13 levels. His defense levels off some and his statistics reflect the eyeball view that he's a good-but-not-Bourjosian center fielder. 

In this view, Trout remains the best player in baseball for the indefinite future, winning multiple MVP awards and going down in history as one of the greatest outfielders to ever play the game, perhaps challenging Mickey Mantle for fourth on the all-time list of center fielders in fWAR (112.3).

Projected Yearly Peak Stats: .300/.400/.570, 30-35 HR, 20-25 SB, 8-9 WAR

What's the Verdict?
The point of this article isn't as much to come up with a definitive projection, but to lay out different possibilities. If I had to  put my money down on the table, I'd speculate a 20/65/15% split for Optimistic/Moderate/Pessimistic outcomes. In other words, I'm going to chicken out and take the moderate view, with the optimistic being a tad more likely than the pessimistic future. I do think he's got a good chance of having one or several seasons more in the optimistic range, but that his norm will be more akin to the moderate view. 

I would be remiss to mention that there are many other possible futures; for instance, another option would be a combination of the skill-set in the “Chicken Little” scenario, but the value of the “Middle Way” scenario – in other words, something more like .280/.370/.550 with 35-40 HR and 15 SB.

With a talent like Mike Trout, it is really difficult to speculate. We're still talking about a player who has—according to Fangraphs—been more valuable than any player in baseball history through his age 22 season (his 29.1 career fWAR leads Cobb's 25.9, Ott's 25.1, and Williams' 24.8).  The future remains unwritten, and where Angel fans and baseball fans (with the possible exception of the most die-hard division rivals) as a whole unite is looking forward to seeing exactly how Mike Trout writes it.

Thursday, October 9, 2014


This week we celebrate our 10th anniversary with an interview with long time member, yk9000. Paul brings intelligent (and controversial) topics for discussion to our forum, demonstrating a knack for getting things going when it comes to conversation threads on our website. A participant of our Softball Tournaments over the years, Paul has poured into AngelsWin.com in many ways over the years and we love him! 

Let's find out a little about yk9000 in this week's member appreciation post. 

AngelsWin.com: When and how did you first come to AngelsWin.com?

yk9000:  I came over from the ESPN site when most everyone else did - the Great Migration of 2004.

AngelsWin.com:  What keeps you coming back to the site?

yk9000:  The smart-aleck posters, as well as the informative posters.  I really like the forums.  I like reading points of view different from my own.  I know its a cliche, but I feel a kinship with a lot of people here, even though I have barely (or never) met them. 

My kids, years ago, jokingly referred to this message board as the "nerd board".  Nobody in my family even knows the name "Angelswin"... its just known as "the nerd board".  I like that.

AngelsWin.com:  What have been some of your favorite articles and threads? 

yk9000:  I liked the all-time greatest games articles.  I also like any thread, baseball related or not, that goes off the rails, in a direction completely opposite of its original topic.  Nutswingers vs. Failos is like catnip for me.

AngelsWin.com:  What in-person events have you attended from AngelsWin.com (Spring/Summer Fanfests, Charity Golf, Charity Softball)?

yk9000:  I've been to several softball games over the years, and have enjoyed every one of them.  I am not much of a fan of Spring Training, and as a CPA, it isn't in a convenient time, so I won't be making it out to Tempe.

I've made it to a few happy hours, and bailed on a couple others that I promised to attend - one of which Blarg made Raisin Roundies ( a running joke on one of the Hangout threads) for me.  I still feel bad about that.

AngelsWin.com:  Why is AngelsWin.com your internet home for the Angels?

yk9000: I get all the information I need in one stop.

AngelsWin.com:  In your opinion, what is AngelsWin.com’s best feature: the articles, charitable events, game-day chat, message boards, Fanfests, podcasts, etc?

yk9000: 1. Message boards.  2. Message boards.  3. Message boards.



Lighter Side



AngelsWin.com:  Where do you live and what do you do?

yk9000:  Lakewood, CA.  I am controller and compliance officer for an investment firm.

AngelsWin.com: Why are you an Angels fan?

yk9000:  I was born in Northridge, CA, but lived all over the country growing up.  I never really had a home team to root for until high school.  I lived in Maryland, and was a pretty big Orioles fan.  We moved back out to Southern California in 1983, and I found it harder and harder to root for a team across the country (this was pre-internet).  And, my team, the Orioles, went from having such homegrown talent, to signing free agents like Fred Lynn and Ray Knight, guys I had no connection with.  I think that is one of the reasons I don't like FA signings today.

Anyways, I went on my first date with my wife, Judy, in 1990 to an Angels game.  Her grandparents were original season ticket holders, and our seats were right behind the visitor's dugout.  It was an easy switch to make the Angels.  The early 1990s Angels teams were terrible, but the seats were great.  I got hooked on the Angels.

AngelsWin.com:  What was your first Angels game that you remember? Who’d you go with?

yk9000:  Spring 1985 - I went with my college buddy, Rich.  A day game against the A's, in the old Big A set up.  Upper deck, near the LF foul pole.

AngelsWin.com:  Who have been your favorite players? Why? Any great stories or interactions with them?

yk9000:  I like Scot Shields.  I loved those years of dominance from him, with little 'maintenance'.  Actually, I am pretty partial to anyone from that 2002 team (except the lousy startiing pitching).

AngelsWin.com:  How do you survive the offseason?

yk9000:  NFL Red Zone

AngelsWin.com: What’s one thing you’d like everyone in AngelsWin.com to know about you?

yk9000: Not one damn thing :)

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