Every Halo fan's hidden fear

By Jason Sinner - Angelswin Columnist

We wanted Miguel Cabrera. It would have given every Halo fan that warm fuzzy feeling inside. We would have been able to say that we match up with the big boys......on paper. Maybe!Now we are left with debating the pros and cons of what we have or have not done. Many are left with the notion that regardless of whether we win the AL west, we will not stack up come playoff time. In a previous article, I hypothesized that if we could win it all with the team we had in 2002, then we could easily do the same in 2008, as we may in fact, have a better team than we did that year. The main counterpoint to that being the other 2008 teams are better equipped that those we faced in 2002. So I got to thinking, which is always dangerous. What's the real reason for the perceived inadequacy some harbor?

Let’s start with a side by side comparison of our playoff squads in the MS era:

Lineups

Year	2002 (99-63)	2004 (92-70)	2005 (95-67)	2007 (94-68)	2008
Lineup	Eck SS	Eck SS	Figgy 3b/2b/CF	Figgy 3b	Figgy 3b
	Erstad CF	Figgy 3b	Erstad 1b	Cabrera SS	GMJ LF
	Salmon RF	Vlad RF	Vlad RF	Vlad RF/DH	Vlad RF
	Anderson LF	Anderson CF	Anderson LF/DH	Anderson DH/LF	Anderson DH
	Glaus 3b	Guillen LF	Finley CF	GMJ CF	Hunter CF
	Spezio 1b	Salmon DH	Cabrera SS	Kotch 1b	Kotch 1b
	Fullmer DH	Erstad 1b	Molina C	Kendrick 2b	Kendrick 2b
	Molina C	Molina C	DMAC/Rivera/JD	Napoli C	Napoli/Mathis C
	Kennedy 2b	Kennedy 2b	Kennedy	Izzy/Willits DH/etc.	Aybar/Izzy SS
Runs	851	836	761	822	?????

*in 2004 we had Glaus at DH for 29 games but lost Guillen for the playoffs.

Pitching

Year	2002 (99-63)	2004 (92-70)	2005 (95-67)	2007 (94-68)	2008
Starters	Appier	Colon	Colon	Lackey	Lackey
	Wash	Escobar	Lackey	Escobar	Escobar
	Ortiz	Lackey	Byrd	Weaver	Weaver
	Sele	Wash	Wash	Santana	Garland
	Lackey	Sele	Santana	Colon	Saunders
Bullpen/6th	Schoeneweiss	Ortiz	Escobar	Saunders	Santana
	Percy	Percy	Krod	Krod	Krod
	Weber	Krod	Shields	Shields	Shields
	Levine	Shields	Donnelley	Speier	Speier
	Donnelley	Gregg	Yan	Oliver	Oliver
	Pote	Donnelley	Greg	Boot	Moseley
	Shields	Hensley	Peralta	Moseley	Boot
	Cook	Weber	Woods	Carrasco	Bulger
Runs/ERA	644/3.69	734/4.28	643/3.68	731/4.23	????

From an offensive standpoint, Figgy and GMJ can easily equal that of Eck and Erstad. 3-4-5 hit 81hrs in 2002 and I think the 2008 version can come very close to that and hit for a higher AVG. 6-9 are pretty similar with the 2008 squad having a great deal more upside. Overall, the '08 team will have quite a bit more bench depth and the edge in speed. From a pitching standpoint, the 2008 starters are far more dominant 1-5 and a top 3 of Lackey/Escobar/Weaver would be a very strong playoff rotation. The 02 team has the bullpen edge although I think the 2007 pen underachieved and could certainly be quite a bit better in 08. Last years team dealt with a ton of injuries, but if the 08 team stays healthy as the 2002 team did, then watch out.

What about the competition in those years?

2002 Playoff Teams Runs/Runs Against/ERA Stat Link	2004 Playoff Teams Runs/Runs Against/ERA Stat Link	2005 Playoff Teams Runs/Runs Against/ERA Stat Link	2007 Playoff Teams Runs/Runs Against/ERA Stat Link
Halos (99-63) 851/644/3.69 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ANA/2002.shtml	Halos (92-70) 836/734/4.28 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ANA/2004.shtml	Halos (95-67) 761/643/3.68 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2005.shtml	Halos (94-68) 822/731/4.23 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2007.shtml
Oakland (103-59) 800/654/3.68 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/2002.shtml	BOS (98-64) 949/768/4.18 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2004.shtml	BOS (95-67) 910/805/4.74 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2005.shtml	BOS(96-66) 867/657/3.87 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2007.shtml
Yanks (103-58) 897/697/3.87 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2002.shtml	NYY (101-61) 897/808/4.69 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2004.shtml	NYY (95-67) 886/789/4.52 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2005.shtml	NYY (94-68) 968/777/4.49 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2007.shtml
Minnesota (94-67) 768/712/4.12 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2002.shtml	Minnesota (92-70) 780/715/4.03 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2004.shtml	CWS (99-63) 741/645/3.61 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHW/2005.shtml	CLE (96-66) 811/704/4.05 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/2007.shtml

2008 outlook

Potential AL Playoff Teams	Halos	NYY	BOS	CLE	DET
Starters	Lackey Escobar Weaver Garland Saunders	Wang Pettitte Hughes Chamberlain Kennedy	Beckett Schilling Dicek Lester Wakefield	Sabathia Carmona Byrd Westbrook Laffey	Verlander Rogers Bonderman Willis Robertson
Bullpen	Krod Shields Speier Oliver Santana Moseley	Rivera Igawa Farnsworth Mussina Proctor Bruney	Papelbon Okajima Delcarmen Lopez Snyder Timlin	Borowski Bentancourt Kobayashi Fultz Mastny Lee	Jones Rodney Zumaya Seay Grilli Byrdak
Lineup	Figgins 3b GMJ LF Vlad RF Anderson DH Hunter CF Kotch 1b Kendrick 2b Napoli C Aybar SS	Cabrera CF Jeter SS Abreu RF Arod 3b Giambi DH Matsui LF Posada C Cano 2b Mientkiewicz 1b	Pedroia 2b Youklis 1b Ortiz DH Manny LF Lowell 3b Drew RF Varitek C Ellsbury CF Lugo SS	Sizemore CF Cabrera 2b Hafner DH Martinez C Garko 1b Peralta SS Lofton LF Gutierrez RF Blake 3b	Granderson CF Polanco 2b Ordonez RF Cabrera 3b Sheffield DH Guillen 1b IRod C Jones LF Renteria SS
Bench	Morales Rivera Willits Izturis Mathis	Damon Phillips Molina Cairo Betemit	Cora Crisp Brown Moss	Shoppach Marte Barfield Michaels Dellucci	Thames Inge Wilson Rayburn Infante

Keep in mind that I, personally, take nothing for granted. The team still has to go out and win. This is just a comparison based off of what we currently have on paper.

Going off the raw team numbers, the '02 team had a differential of over 200. Clearly the sign of a damn good team. That year the Yanks also had a similar differential and Oakland was solid top to bottom with a power filled lineup and real good pitching. The outlook for the above teams in '08 is similar. BOS, CLE, and NYY are similar to last years teams and therefore we can assume that on paper they will post a similar differential. Meaning near 200 runs for both NYY and BOS and about 100 for CLE. Last years DET team has made some offensive upgrades adding Cabrera, and Renteria, their pitching is slightly better with the addition of Dontrelle Willis and loss of Miller. They had a power packed offense last year that will likely be even better, but is that enough to turn a 90 run differential into near 200? I doubt it.

Come playoff time one of the above teams obviously cannot make it. The Halos, Boston, Cle and Det certainly have the edge in terms of starters, and the Halos and Boston have the bullpen edge. The Yanks and Det are the offensive minded teams. So let's play a little more 'what if'. What if we perform where I think we can in 2008. None of the above teams are head and shoulders above the Halos, and they are certainly not apples and oranges compared to the playoff teams of 2002.

Now let's tackle the real reason why there is the perception that we are a tier below any of those teams mentioned. It's the giant pink elephant in the middle of the room. The Boston Red Sox! That's right, I said it. The only time we develop a sudden inferiority complex is when our arch nemesis has a team good enough to make the playoffs. Our franchise has made the playoffs 7 times in their 46 year history. We have lost in the playoffs six of those times, and three of them to the Red Sox. Once in extremely dramatic fashion and the other two via old fashion whoopings. We don't fear Oak, or NY, or Det, or Cle. If, in 2008, the Yanks won the East, Det the Central, LAA the West, and Cle the wild card, there wouldn't be even a remote hint of fear in any Halo fans' eyes. But if Boston squeezes in as an 85 win wild card team, all of a sudden we magnify every deficiency our team has.

Let's all recognize this for what it is. Post-Traumatic-Stress-Disorder. Nothing more. We are not a second tier team. If we can come close to the numbers we put up in 2002 then on paper we are better than the Cle's and Det's of the world and on par with Bos and NY. We just can't beat the Red Sox in the playoffs. Recently, we haven't even come close. But, we changed our playoff mojo in 2002, so who's to say we can't do it again.