By Robert Cunningham - AngelsWin.com Columnist
As the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft has unfolded I have followed the
AngelsWin.com thread, “The Official 2012 Amateur Draft Thread”, and have seen
several comments expressing some surprise at the type of choices that our front
office has made and continues to make. However these draft choices don’t
particularly surprise me and seemingly fit in with the short and long term
plans of the Angels franchise.
Although the Angels have been significant players in free agency and previous
drafts over the last decade, this current philosophy on how to build a
franchise began with the hiring of a not-quite-as-well-known General Manager
named Jerry Dipoto in October of last year. Jerry brought a very specific
vision on how the Angels should build to win today and well into the future and
he is executing on that plan as we speak and it appears to be unfolding in the
way that Arte Moreno, Mike Scioscia, and Jerry Dipoto hoped.
Back in early November, after we had signed Dipoto, I posted a thread, Go Big or Go Home?, that asked the
question about whether we should try to sign a big bat for the 2012 season or
should we make minor complimentary signings and withhold from spending and
potentially losing draft picks in the 2012 Amateur Draft.
My thought process, along with several others on AngelsWin.com, was
that the 2012 Amateur Draft was widely believed to be one of the weakest drafts,
in terms of overall talent, in recent memory and that the Angels would best be
served by acquiring a feared, middle-of-the-order, bat (and I advocated Fielder
because Pujols seemed very likely to re-sign with the Cardinals, the only team
he had ever played for), thereby sacrificing their 2012 early round Amateur
Draft picks, and making a push to win the AL West over the next couple of
years, mainly because the AL West only seems to have two horses at the head of
the race (Texas and Anaheim) to compete against.
Jerry Dipoto apparently agreed with the AngelsWin.com members (because
we all know he follows us religiously right? Damn Microsoft for not having a
‘Sarcasm On’ emoticon!)! Through his offseason maneuvers, free agent signings,
and, now, his selections in the 2012 Amateur Draft, Jerry is giving us a
glimpse into the future and time horizon of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
and what we can and should expect both in the short term and the long term for
this team.
First of all this team is definitely built to win over the next 4
years. Jerry Dipoto through free agent signings, player extensions, and
arbitration-controlled players has the following group of core players locked
up through 2015:
·
Albert Pujols
·
Jered Weaver
·
C.J. Wilson
·
Mike Trout
·
Mark Trumbo
·
Howie Kendrick
·
Erick Aybar
·
Peter Bourjos
·
Ernesto Frieri
·
Jordan Walden
·
Garrett Richards
·
Hank Conger
That is a strong core of players to retain control of for such an
extended period of time! It is the type of group that you can build around each
year and can add or supplement with additional free agent signings, extensions
to current players, or trades with other teams. Additionally you can also
supplement this core with prospects from the annual Amateur Drafts, which
segue’s into the Angels 2012 Amateur Draft strategy.
Because of the decision to purposely sacrifice our early round draft
picks to sign Pujols and Wilson the Angels have taken this opportunity to draft
prospects that are near-MLB ready (college level) and will mainly supplement the main core of players over
the current 4 year time horizon. As of this writing over half of the 2012
selections have been pitchers (and most of those are projected as relief pitchers)
along with a splash of position players who either have some potential upside
or fit the mold of utility back-up type players.
The Angels have a reputation of developing above average pitchers,
relievers, middle infielders, and utility type players and I think that not
only will some of these current draftees help us win games over the next 4
years but they will become useful trade chips in obtaining players in other
areas of need or as trade opportunities arise. This is an area of Comparative Advantage, where a team uses its expertise in
developing certain types of players (in the Angels recent history that would be
pitching and middle infielders) and either uses them to help the team or as
trade chips to obtain players that they do not develop well (in this case the
Angels have had trouble over the last few years developing impact bats at the
corner positions and the outfield, although Trout, Trumbo, and Morales are the
more recent exceptions) or turn out to be areas of deficiency (see Ernesto
Freiri).
As an ancillary benefit a lot of these mid-to-late round pitchers and
position players won’t cost the Angels a lot of money to draft, particularly
since the Angels are the most cash-strapped team in terms of slot money for the
2012 Amateur Draft (just under $1.7 million). Additionally, because so many
teams were a little bit more focused on their top picks the Angels might have
gained a very slight advantage by greater scouting of the rank 100+ picks (I’m
sure most teams do their due diligence however but the Angels scouting
resources were pointed at the mid and lower rounds).
This 2012 approach to drafting, I believe, is only for this year and
should be looked at as a “bye” year of sorts considering the purposeful way we
gave up our draft picks for free agent acquisition. I don’t think you are going
to hear about a bunch of great prospects that the Angels missed out on and, in
fact, I think we will be satisfied with our results even though they probably won’t
be as good as some other teams.
Moving forward the Angels should be able to retain early round draft
picks under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) rules. Also we should
have more slot money to spend next year which will help in our draft
strategies. Actually it may have been to the Angels benefit to use this poor
draft class to see how the new CBA rules affect the drafting process and its
impact on other baseball teams. The Pirates, for instance, picked up Mark
Appel, unexpectedly, but that decision
impacted the rest of their draft and who they can sign for slot. Letting other
teams make potential mistakes, under the new CBA, in the Amateur draft while we
secured two major free agents will probably, in hindsight, have been a smart
move.
So what happens in the 2013 Amateur Draft and beyond? The Angels will
probably develop a more balanced approach, picking both high school and college
players depending upon the organizations needs. I’m sure they will use any 1st
or 2nd round picks on the best overall players that they can draft
and then use the additional rounds to fill in holes based on the myriad of
projections on the current prospects in the farm system. This year and next
year seem to be focused on players who can replace Kendrick, Aybar, et. al.
that may or may not be here after this current 4-year time horizon expires.
After 2015, the makeup of this ballclub will change with some core players
staying (Pujols and Trout for instance) and some going (Aybar and Kendrick
perhaps). Prospect development of 2012 and 2013 draft choices will help drive
decisions 4+ years from now.
No matter what happens I sincerely believe that Jerry Dipoto will
aggressively pursue opportunities to make the team better whether it is through
free agency, the farm system, or through trades. In fact it is these latter two
tools that I think Dipoto will use more often as we move forward. He seems to
be a vocal advocate of trades as a means to improve a team and running a good
scouting and farm system is always a cheap way to build a contending ballclub.
Free agency has its uses as it did in the offseason after last year but it is
not the ideal tool for maintaining the long-term health of an organization.
Rest a little easier Halo Fans, the Angels ballclub is in pretty good
hands with Dipoto at the helm and I think we will be able to contend not only
now but for the foreseeable future, as well.
