By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Contributor -
Disclaimer: This trade discussion is purely speculative in nature
and presents an unlikely example of how the Angels can improve their roster for
2014. FanGraphs WAR stat is used to help evaluate player value, but it is
merely a useful guide for this analysis. This article is meant to entertain and
generate discussion!
Teams Involved:
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Philadelphia Phillies
Toronto Blue Jays
Team Needs:
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim –
The
Angels need pitching for both the rotation and bullpen. Additionally a possible
upgrade at third base would be desirable. Team budget is a concern (even if
Arte Moreno breaks the luxury tax threshold) so any trade would need to keep
the team payroll relatively neutral. Improving their overall farm system is a
secondary goal.
Philadelphia Phillies –
The
Phillies need to fill one hole in the back-end of their rotation and bullpen.
Additionally they have stated a need for a power-hitting corner outfielder who
can hit left-handed pitching. Also their catching situation is up in the air
and finding the right tandem for primary and back up duty is a priority.
Improving the lower levels of their farm system is a secondary goal.
Toronto Blue Jays –
The
Jays have made it clear they need to find an upgrade at second base. Also they
have stated a desire to acquire a right-handed hitting backup catcher against
left-handed pitching. Adding some inexpensive bullpen help could allow them to
safely move one or more of their current relievers in trade. The Jays farm
system is relatively strong and is a potential asset source.
Players Involved:
‘Adjusted Value Out’ takes
the average WAR of a player, over the last three years, and makes minor adjustments
for age (decline), scarcity (projected high WAR season), and whether they
project to receive a Qualifying Offer.
Please note that prospects
are, by nature, inherently cheaper in value. Top prospects, of course, are more
valuable than ‘organizational depth’ type prospects and Minor League experience
level is also reflected in their value.
Example: The Rangers traded Mike Olt (#57 on MLB 2013 Top
100), Justin Grimm, C.J. Edwards, and Neil Ramirez for essentially $5.1 million
(1.1 WAR for 2nd half of 2013) and a half-year of Matt Garza.
Although it was a deadline overpay for one mid-level star and three
organizational players, it illustrates the point.
This prospect evaluation is
reflected in the ‘Adjusted Value Out’ column in the chart above. Those players
under contract that are likely eligible for a Qualifying Offer at contract end,
which would net the controlling team a compensatory draft pick, adds additional
dollars to their ‘Adjusted Value Out’ total.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim –
The
Angels are coming off a disappointing season and know that in order to compete
they need to acquire young, controllable pitching and one of the only ways to
accomplish that is through trade of some of their position players.
One
of those players is Howie Kendrick. Since early June there has been increasing
chatter that Kendrick and the remaining two team-friendly years on his contract
could be moved. It is also likely that Howie, at the end of his contract when
he enters free agency, will receive a Qualifying Offer which would net a draft
pick, increasing his value.
Mark
Trumbo is also a player that the Angels might consider parting with in trade.
Several teams are looking for a corner outfielder/first baseman and the Angels
don’t really have a clear starting position for him in 2014. Trumbo is also
likely to receive a Qualifying Offer before hitting free agency, netting a
draft pick for the controlling team.
Tommy
Hanson might be a possible non-tender for the Angels. It is a borderline call
but as a pitcher in the back-end of the rotation, his measly projected $3.9
million arbitration salary is reasonable, especially in this scarce pitcher
market. Hanson would essentially be a one-year rental with possible upside.
Chris
Iannetta also has two years remaining on his team-friendly contract. His
positive value would allow the Angels to move him in trade and then sign a
catcher who can hit left-handed pitching to backup Hank Conger, who would
receive the lion’s share of starts in 2014.
Philadelphia Phillies –
The
Phillies are also coming off a disappointing season and have needs in their
rotation, bullpen, and the outfield. They too would like to acquire another young,
controllable starter and a trade, especially if it involves moving one of their
big contracts, would be desirable from a payroll point of view.
Cliff
Lee has been the subject of trade talk for a while now and he is owed a
tremendous amount of money over the remainder of his two year, plus one option
year, contract. Despite his increasing age he has been very productive and the
short contract length would be attractive to the right teams.
Note: For the purposes of this analysis Lee’s value is based on the idea that
his option year would not be picked up and his buyout paid. Even if the option
were picked up it would make minimal difference in this analysis.
Third
base prospect Maikel Franco (AA) had a terrific offensive year in the Minors
this season. His defense is fringe-average but he has decent hands and a sturdy
arm. The Phillies already have Cody Asche, another third base prospect, up on
the big league team who looks like he will start in 2014, making Franco
expendable in the right move.
Finally
the Phillies can afford to part with left-handed reliever Jake Diekman
(AAA/Majors) and left-handed starter Austin Wright (AA) as they have other
near-MLB ready starters (Biddle, Martin, and Pettibone) and relievers like Luis
Lopez as depth for Bastardo and Horst.
Toronto Blue Jays –
Just
like the Angels and Phillies, the Blue Jays are also coming off a disappointing
season where they were expected to contend. Questions surround their rotation,
second base, and at the backup catcher position behind Josh Thole.
Although
the Blue Jays would be okay with retaining Casey Janssen, their 2013 closer, he
could also be moved in trade to fill some roster holes. Janssen could be a one
year rental for an acquiring team or a possible extension candidate.
Also
J.P. Arencibia is a potential non-tender candidate for the Jays as their front
office feels that left-handed hitting Josh Thole is their 2014 starting
catcher. If the Jays could trade him and his projected $2.8 million salary it
would be a plus as he is a borderline non-tender candidate.
Additionally
the Jays have two of their top young starting pitching prospects, right-handers
Aaron Sanchez (A) and Marcus Stroman (AA) that could eventually slot into the
front end of a pitching staff. Since the Jays already have Jeremy Jeffress and
Sean Nolin on their 40-man, these two are expendable in the right trade.
Finally
the Blue Jays are able to part with right-handed relievers Joel Carreno (AAA)
and Wil Browning (A+) who are young, cost-controlled bullpen pieces that are
expendable.
The Trade:
How Does This Improve Each Team?
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim –
The
Angels, by moving Kendrick, Trumbo, Iannetta, and Hanson, move a lot of salary
off of the books to make room for the acquisition of Cliff Lee, a clear front
of the rotation starter. Essentially the Halos trade four controllable, MLB
players in exchange for one controllable MLB player, one rental MLB player and
five prospects.
The
net result of this trade, for the 2014 season, is an addition of $4,175,000 in
team payroll and this doesn’t consider the fact that the Phillies will have to
kick in some salary relief (about $5 million in 2014 and $8.5 million in 2015) to
help balance out the trade making this a net gain in salary of zero for 2014.
If
the Angels re-signed Jason Vargas, it would give them a starting five rotation
of Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Garrett Richards, and Jason Vargas,
which would be a significant improvement over 2013.
In
addition to Lee the Angels acquire a young, offensive minded third base
prospect in Franco who could compete for a starting position in Spring Training
and at the minimum would provide some quality depth at the position.
Additionally
the back-end of our bullpen would be instantly upgraded with the addition of
Janssen. Also the acquisition of Carreno and Browning creates additional,
quality depth in the Minors with Carreno being the first called up in the event
of an injury.
Finally
adding Marcus Stroman and Austin Wright (both currently in AA) provides starting
rotation depth which we badly need. If a starter is injured one of these two
could get the call and fill in the gap.
Philadelphia Phillies –
The
Phillies trade away two controllable MLB players, cash, and two prospects in
exchange for one controllable MLB player, two probable one-year rental MLB
players, a top pitching prospect, and some salary relief.
Losing
Cliff Lee creates a bit of addition by subtraction for the Phillies mainly
through payroll relief. Although they now have to fill a hole in the front of
their rotation they have more cash to focus on a starting pitcher trade and
their primary catcher position.
Mark
Trumbo adds the right-handed, corner, outfield bat the Phillies need and
Arencibia gives them a stop-gap backup catcher for 2014 with some slight
upside. Hanson gives them a 5th starter for their rotation and if he
performs well back in the National League he could be a trade chip or extension
candidate.
Although
the Phillies would technically have about $12,250,000 available for 2014 they
have to provide some salary relief for Cliff Lee. Assuming they send over the
$5 million, mentioned above, it leaves them with a little over $8 million (for
2014) on top of the available payroll space (about $38 million) they currently
have to acquire a starting pitcher, catcher, and set up reliever.
If
the Phillies were to sign Masahiro Tanaka, for instance, it would give them a
starting five man rotation of Cole Hamels, Masahiro Tanaka, Miguel Alfredo
Gonzalez, Kyle Kendrick, and Tommy Hanson, which is not too shabby.
The
remaining payroll could be used to acquire a left-hand hitting catcher such as
Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Brian McCann to handle the main catching duties and a
right-handed relief pitcher for their bullpen.
Finally
the Phillies acquire the type of young prospect that they wanted in any trade
for Cliff Lee in the form of right-handed pitcher Aaron Sanchez who can be a
future front end starter for them in 2-4 years. Alternatively, the Phillies
could flip Aaron Sanchez (or Jesse Biddle) to the Rays as the centerpiece of a
David Price trade. In fact they could forego Hanson and try to target both
Tanaka and Price!
Toronto Blue Jays –
The
Blue Jays end up using their farm system to acquire some of the pieces they
need to contend in 2014, especially in light of the major upgrade moves they
made prior to 2013. Toronto gives up two one-year MLB rental players, some
cash, and four prospects in exchange for three controllable MLB players.
Acquiring
Howie Kendrick impacts their middle infield tremendously and he is an
offensive-minded hitter in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The potential
compensatory pick has additional value for the Jays.
Chris
Iannetta would become the backup catcher to Josh Thole, creating a nice
catching platoon for the Blue Jays. Chris has a reasonably priced, two-year
contract which is a good fit for the Blue Jays current window of contention.
Jake
Diekman gives Toronto a pretty good left-handed back-end bullpen guy who is
more of a groundball pitcher in a homer-friendly ballpark which is a plus.
The
Blue Jays end up taking on a little over $8 million in salary for the 2014
season which is a reasonable increase for their team payroll. They will have to
kick in about $3.3 million to the Angels as well (probably paying most of
Janssen’s salary) to help balance out the total trade. It still gives them room
to target a starting pitcher in trade.
Conclusion:
Although
this was a fun thought exercise it does show what some extreme creativity can
do to improve a team.
Most
trades are done on a much smaller scale to add one or two pieces at a time but
once in a while you get a monster trade that can completely reshape a team’s
outlook (Pre-2013 Blue Jays) or season (2013 Dodgers and Red Sox!).
This trade would rely on the willingness of the
Phillies to move Cliff Lee and his massive salary and the Blue Jays to give up
two of their top pitching prospects. However both teams intend to compete next
season, especially the Jays, so there is a motivation factor on all sides that
could make this a possible reality.
