Saturday, December 31, 2016

Prospect: Brennon Lund - Rank: 21

2015/16: UR                   Position(s): Outfield
Level: A Ball                  Age: Entering Age 22 season in 2017.
Height: 5'11”                  Weight: 185 lb.

Present -  Future 

Hitting Ability: 50 - 55
Power: 30 - 40
Base Running: 60 - 60
Patience: 50 - 50
Fielding: 50 - 50
Range: 55 - 55
Arm: 45 - 45
Overall: 45 - 50

Floor: AAA Depth. 
Ceiling: Borderline starting outfielder.  
Likely Outcome: 4th/5th outfielder.

Summary: Brennon Lund is a case study in when do the numbers become legitimate? From a tools standpoint, he shouldn't be THAT good.  He should be decent, but not team leader type of good.  He's smaller in stature in terms of professional athletes, he doesn't have any power, there's some speed but not enough to be a base stealing threat at the highest level.  He's a good defender, but not so good that you'd consider him a defensive replacement that will give you anything but decent performance.  

When we take all of that into account, Lund is just minor league depth.   Except for the simple fact that he just keeps hitting.  His freshman year at BYU, he hit .303.  Not bad, especially considering it was his first year of college ball. His sophomore year, we see a modest jump up to .308, again, pretty good.  Then in his junior season, Lund just exploded, hitting .387 with career highs in every offensive category.  The Angels picked him up in the 11th round, which worked out in their favor.  Apparently other teams were scared off because he's mormon, and kids that are mormon and his age tend to wear ties, ride bicycles and knock on doors.  But Lund made it clear to the Angels that he doesn't intend to make a mission trip. 

Just breaking down Lund's swing, we see extremely simple mechanics.  His hands remain pretty close to the chest, he doesn't have a big load which can elongate his swing.  In fact, Lund has barely any load mechanism at all.  It's simple.  Hands fly through the zone, barrel of the bat to the ball, finish with hands high to ensure driving through the ball and not to the ball.  Lund uses the whole field, but being left-handed, occasionally he'll drop the barrel of the bat on a low and inside pitch and get himself a round-tripper.

Lund's first stop after signing with the Angels was the offensive paradise which is Orem in the Pioneer League, where he hit .397.  That's over 18 games, which is a bit of a small sample zine, but still, .397, this kid was crushing the competition, even against his fellow collegiate athletes.  Then as a sort of mercy to everyone else, Lund was sent to Burlington.  His performance against competition quite a bit older and more experienced than him led to Lund's numbers dropping to a modest .271/.320, but it still came with 9 doubles and 8 stolen bases in just 45 games.  Extrapolated across a full season, and without any improvement whatsoever (which is silly because of course Lund would improve, he was just drafted), Lund would've hit 27 doubles and stole 24 bases on the season.  Again, just solid numbers, especially for a kid that's young and inexperienced for his league.

So this leads to the logical question, that if Lund continues to hit so well, when do the numbers become legitimate?   When do we just say, he's a good hitter.  Good hitters are in the majors.   And that in a nut shell is exactly why Lund is ranked #21 on our list.  

What to expect next season: Lund will almost assuredly find himself at Inland Empire next season. Since he isn't a power hitter, the environment really shouldn't have much of a positive effect on his overall performance.  I expect Lund should post numbers rather similar to Bo Way.  At Inland Empire he hit .277/.349 with 27 stolen bases.

Estimated Time of Arrival: Late 2020, Lund's age 25 season

Grade as a prospect: C: Projects to be a reserve outfielder.

Grades are given from the 20-80 scouting scale.  20-being non-existent ability, 80-being the best I’ve ever seen.  MLB average is 50.
Love to hear what you think!

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