By Grant Larson, AngelsWin.com Baseball Columnist -
A Tale of Happenings From Around the League
Here we are at the unofficial
halfway point of the season. The midsummer classic has come and gone. Some teams had surprises while others faced bumps and bruises.
Baltimore’s sensational season wasn’t a fluke and neither was
Oakland’s. Money doesn’t buy happiness; we can thank the Dodgers and the
Yankees for proving that theory. The Blue Jays have been painfully bad, then
exceptionally good, and now just average. Washington doesn’t seem like the 100
win team many thought they were, while the Red Sox look like the 100 win team
many thought they weren’t.
I set out to identify how teams have fared this year in terms of production, payroll, and against expectations. I broke down teams into 3
categories: starting pitching, relief pitching, and hitters. I used WAR from
fangraphs.com to determine the average performance of players from each
category for each team. I used WAR because it is an attempt to quantify all of
the contributions a player provides his team into a single value. If you are
interested in learning more about WAR click here. To simplify the
information I limited those players included in this analysis so the averages
were more accurate. Hitters needed to have at least 80 AB, relief pitchers
needed more than 10 IP, and starting pitchers needed to have pitched in excess
of 40 IP. I made my graphs available at the bottom of this article.
Before I get into the
individual teams I want to point out one thing I found while doing this
analysis because it effectively adds credence to a theory I have. The theory has to do with paying large sums of money to player in their late 20's and early 30's, but that is for another time. Of the top
15 hitters with the highest WAR, 10 of them cumulatively made less than what
Alex Rodriguez is making this year. Let me repeat that for those of you not
listening! Alex Rodriguez is making $29 million dollars to lick his wounds this
year, meanwhile there are 10
everyday players around the league ranked in the top 15 in the WAR category for
hitters that are making just over $25 million COMBINED! That blows me away!
Now on to the teams:
AL East:
Boston Red Sox (Wins: 58, Cost per Win: $2.6
Million) - Oh my,
what a difference a year makes. Many people, myself included, were convinced
that overpaying a bunch of role players didn’t seem to be the best formula for
success. Many were wrong. And they remained financially flexible moving
forward. They are near the top in all categories of WAR, which is astounding
consider where they were less than a year ago. The pitching has been revived,
obviously by strong performances by Buchholz and Lackey. Lester is still a bit of
a question mark. He started the season off really well and then slowed
dramatically. The bullpen has gone through many drastic transformations but
seems to be holding itself together. The hitting has been amazing. Papi seems
to refuse to age, Ellsbury is burning up the base paths, and Daniel Nava has
been a nice surprise. Dustin Pedroia has been a gutsy, hard working
contributor and seems to personify the team as a whole.
New York Yankees (Wins: 51, Cost per Win: $4.5
Million) – There is
only one statistic that can explain what has happened to the Yankees this year
and it’s obvious it has to do with injuries. To quantify it the Yankees (if
Derek Jeter is counted) have more than $90 million dollars on the disabled
list. I fear this is what happens when a team locks themselves into too many expensive
long-term contracts that run parallel courses. They
want to be under the luxury tax number before next year and have a chance
at doing it but that will limit their flexibility in free
agency during the offseason. The one thing I can assume that they are hoping
for is that A-Rod either gets banned for life or he gives up and calls it quits
if his suspension is too long. Without their top hitters they have fallen to
the bottom half of the league in WAR. Meanwhile, they have produced very well
in each of the pitching categories telling me they may be posed to make a run
with Jeter, Granderson, Texeira, and possibly A-Rod returning soon. If everyone
can manage to get healthy it will be interesting to see how they juggle a
lineup that has been built based on pressure. The pressure to win in the Bronx
has forced the Yanks into taking on bad contracts (e.g. Vernon Wells),
overpaying veterans (e.g. Youkilis), and taking on struggling youths (e.g.
Boesch).
Toronto Blue Jays (Wins: 45, Cost per Win: $2.6
Million) - The way to win quickly
is not by taking on a bunch of players from one team that underperformed the year before. It is easy to say that the Blue Jays offseason
had similarities to the Marlins offseason from a year ago. Their expensive starting pitchers have produced
an average WAR that is very underwhelming. Josh Johnson has lost his stuff and
it seems RA Dickey might have been a one-year wonder. What’s worse is Dickey
gets much more expensive starting next year. Their relief pitchers have
performed well because of strong performances from Delabar, Janssen, and a re-born
Brett Cecil. Hitters have been about what was expected for the most part. Overpaying
Melkey Cabrera was a bad idea, but I think they knew that. His numbers have
been flat and uneven. Brett Lawrie’s energy has been missed. I won’t say they
can’t turn it around, but I doubt it. Biggest
takeaway from the Blue Jays is payroll went up performance stayed flat. I’m not
impressed.
Baltimore Orioles (Wins: 53, Cost per Win: $1.7
Million) – The
Orioles are winning again, and they are winning without pitching. More importantly they are winning with a
payroll that sits right in the middle of the pack. Chris Tillman has the wins
but the stats accompanying them are just alright. Wei-Yin Chen has been hurt a
good portion of the year and I think there is a case that can be made that he
is there best pitcher. They don’t aggressively pursue free agent pitching and
that is probably because they are waiting for some of their young talented
prospects (they have two that could be front of the rotation starters). Their
bullpen, one of their greatest strengths last year, has been just above average
this year and Jim Johnson has blown 6 saves already this year after blowing only 3 last
year. Their hitting has been their strength and has managed to keep them in
games all year. Trading for Davis (a couple of years ago), signing Adam Jones
through only his 32/33 age season, and drafting Machado have given them
flexibility and made them competitive for years (if their pitching develops).
Tampa Bay Rays (Wins: 55, Cost per Win: $1.1
Million) - The Rays
are known for defying the odds and had a great degree of responsibility for
skewing my results; I am sure of that. The combination of player development and
finding journeymen who break out as a Ray have made them great. I love what they
do. Instead of spending otherworldly amounts of money to bring free agents,
they spend their resources creating dynamic rising stars. They develop arms
like the Dodger’s spend money and they do it more effectively. Enough said
about their pitching. Their hitting has been a nice surprise based on WAR; they
rank in the top 5. A lot of that is attributed to a healthy Evan Longoria but
let’s not discount their offseason additions. The $2 million they gave Loney
looks like a steal, trading two of their arms for Meyers seems like the right
move (he’s the real deal), and Escobar has behaved himself and produced on the
field. Again, another efficient and successful season so far.
AL Central:
Detroit Tigers (Wins: 52, Cost per Win: $2.9
Million) – Tiger’s
starting pitching has been nothing short of spectacular by producing lots of
strikeouts, minimizing walks, and accumulating wins. That being said they have
certainly paid for it but in an effective way. Their bullpen has been
serviceable, with the exception of the closer role. I know they were hoping
Rondon would be ready but considering their win now approach, I believe they
should have been more involved in the closer market in the offseason. They may
be involved going into the trade deadline though. Their hitters have been
better than average. There is no question they will be a major player come October.
Cleveland Indians (Wins: 51, Cost per Win: $1.5
Million) – The
Indians did an effective job upgrading their offense in the offseason while only spending about
$47 million. Contributions from new additions
such as Swisher and Bourn have been nice but the bright spot has been Kipnis.
He’s young, affordable, and an underrated 5 tool player at a limited position.
Their starting pitching has improved from last year mainly due to improvements
made by Masterson. After watching Danny Salazar pitch in his major league debut
last week I believe they may have a stud in the making. Their bullpen has been
their Achilles’ heel and they absolutely need to be in the market for some
help.
Chicago White Sox (Wins: 37, Cost per Win: $3.2
Million) – What a
mess. They have a young superstar pitcher that is plagued by a poor win-loss
record because run support is apparently hard for him to come by. And because
of him the pitching for Chicago seems to be doing alright. The back end of
their bullpen has been nothing short of spectacular thanks to set-up man Jesse
Crain (who may be on the move) and closer Addison Reed. Hitting is a major
problem for the White Sox. The big concern is that Paul Konerko seems to be a
fraction of his former self, Tyler Flowers hasn’t been good, Adam Dunn loves to
swing at everything (30% of his at-bats result in strikeouts), and Gordon
Beckham refuses to turn the corner. It seems to me they have a long rebuilding
process ahead of them and they are spending a lot of money doing it.
Kansas City Royals (Wins: 43, Cost per Win:
$1.9 Million) – The
offense has been a bit of an anomaly. It just refuses to develop like we all
thought it would. Francouer got really bad and shipped out, Billy Butler hasn’t
been close to what we have come to expect, and they don’t have a single player
with more than 10 HR’s. Chris Davis has more HR’s than Gordon, Moustakas,
Hosmer, Butler, and Cain combined.
Pitching has been ok and that is only because they managed to get Shields and
Ervin Santana, who have been their two best players. I just don’t understand
this team.
Minnesota Twins (Wins: 39, Cost per Win: $2.1
Million) – The
Twins seem to be torn between trying to win and trying to rebuild. Their hitting and
starting pitching were incredibly bad. Joe Mauer provided one of the few bright
spots in their lineup. A few young guys (Florimon and at times Hicks) showed
some glimpses of being pretty good players. Starting pitching has been as bad
as any team and they don’t have a starter with a WAR greater than 1. The
bullpen is been borderline great. Perkins has worked himself into being a
pretty reliable closer. They have some really nice looking players on the way
up. Patience is needed if you are a Twins fan.
AL West:
Texas Rangers (Wins: 54, Cost per Win: $2.3 Million) – I truly thought the Rangers would struggle this
year without Hamilton, Napoli, and many unhealthy pitchers. They have pieced a
really nice team together and have one of the best starting rotations in
baseball through the first half. All the money they gave to Yu Darvish seems to
be money well spent, Derek Holland has fulfilled some of his promise, and a
couple of their young prospects including Martin Perez have been contributors.
Adrian Beltre has led an offense that is above average and includes: a toolsy
Leonys Martin, power hitting Cruz, and many other top hitters. The bullpen
has been one of the best in the league and Joe Nathan has done an exceptional
job closing out games.
Oakland A’s (Wins: 56, Cost per Win: $1.1
Million) – I love
what Billy Beane does and I think he may be there until the end of time. He
just keeps digging into the farm and finding players to produce. It’s amazing.
Josh Donaldson has a midseason MVP claim and he didn’t even make the all-star
game. I want to clarify that I have a major issue with that. They have managed
WARs above average in each of the categories and there aren’t a lot of
household names. Everyone seems to contribute and there is a different hero
each night. I loved the Bernie lean last year and this team has the same type
of mojo.
Los Angeles Angels (Wins: 44, Cost per Win:
$3.2 Million) - Is it
too early to be concerned about whether the organization is going to be able to
survive under the weight of some of their lofty contracts. I get that Arte
Moreno seems to find bundles of cash when the people around baseball least
expect it. Maybe it was that he wanted to hide it until Torii Hunter signed
elsewhere thinking it wouldn’t offend him after he signed. I don’t get it.
Spending money for a need is one thing, but throwing cash at players over 30
because they are simply household names is straining. Josh Hamilton has been
dreadful and that has carried over from the second half of last year, while
Pujols (even though he has been injured) hasn’t been the Pujols the Angels
thought they were going to get when they signed him. These two guys are making
close to $45 million dollars more than Mike Trout, who is probably the best
overall player on the planet. Another big problem is their pitching.
Seattle Mariners (Wins: 43, Cost per Win: $1.9
Million) - This
youth movement has been atrociously disappointing. Player development, with the
exception of Kyle Seager, has disappointed fans. Highly regarded prospects
including Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero have had to be optioned to refine
their swings and change positions. That being said, Nick Franklin looks like the
real deal and may turn into a top tier 2nd baseman very soon. It’s
not happening this year though and they have some nice pieces to trade, namely
Morales and Ibanez. I say do it and try to get a young major league ready
player or two and pray to the baseball Gods that some of their young players
develop and break out. Their closer got demoted for underperforming but the
bullpen overall has performed nicely. Pitching has been good and it usually is
in the thick air at Safeco. I’m glad for the fan base that they signed Felix to
an extension to keep fans energized. This team could be on the brink of
breaking out or they could be years away.
Houston Astros (Wins: 33, Cost per Win: $.8
Million) – If a
team is going to go through a rebuilding process they should look at the Astros as a template on how to do it. They have stripped down to nothing and are rebuilding from the farm on up. And I’ll tell you what I see: a very bright future. I could spend pages talking about the depth and talent they have on the
way up instead I am going to keep it simple. They have at least 5 top tier prospects
that any team would be lucky to have. One of my favorite moves for them is
saving money long-term by signing Jose Altuve to a team friendly contract that
extends beyond his arbitration years. Well done Astros and while it is painful
for fans now the future is bright.
NL East:
Atlanta Braves (Wins: 54, Cost per Win: $1.7
Million) – The
Braves started out the season really well, built up a huge lead, and are just
coasting now. They are at or just slightly above average in all WAR categories
and they are doing it with a relatively low payroll considering the high
profile names on their team. I think it is easy to admit that the B.J. Upton
signing was painfully bad and might haunt them for the next four and a half
years. Freddie Freeman continues to be one of my favorite players. He has
produced every year since he has come up and in my opinion is the best player
on that team and gets none of the prestige. I want to talk a lot about J.Up but
I don’t think this is the place for it. He has been really disappointing after
a great start. I will leave it at that for now. The pitching has been
serviceable. Julio Teheren has finally developed into a decent option,
Medlen has been sporadic (not the same Medlen from last year) but still
pretty good, and Beachy could elevate this staff upon his return from Tommy
John surgery.
Washington Nationals (Wins: 48, Cost per Win:
$2.5 Million) – It is
hard for me to say that a team spending only $2.5 million per win has been a
disappointment, but they have. The starting pitching has been above average and
Jordan Zimmerman can be thanked for that. It’s unfortunate he doesn’t get more
credit. The bullpen has been solid but not the unstoppable force we thought
they would be and they have a ton of money tied up in that category. Their
hitting always seems to be blah to me and their average WAR backs that up. Ian
Desmond is putting up monster numbers for a short stop and Bryce Harper is a
spark plug and I love the way he plays the game. Anthony Rendon seems to be on
the brink of contributing big time. The rest of the team has kind of
underperformed. They will still make the playoffs, maybe win the division, and
maybe even win a championship but a few people need to step up and now.
Philadelphia Phillies (Wins: 48, Cost per Win:
$3.3 Million) – Holy old
folks home! They have more than $80 million tied up into 3 pitchers: one has looked
great, one loves racking up loses, and one was really bad before going onto the
DL. That being said they are still managing to compete. There have been a lot
of questions about the direction they will take leading into the trading
deadline. They are only 5 ½ out of a wild card spot and 6 ½ out of first in the
division. It’s amazing how they have been able to stay afloat with so many DL
stints but they have. They have a long rebuilding process ahead of them; I’m
just thinking they are trying to get one last push from their aging stars. I
don’t see it happening; I say break it up and start building while you can.
New York Mets (Wins: 41, Cost per Win: $2.3
Million) – I have
been waiting to get to this team because of their payroll. The New York Mets
have nearly half of their payroll tied up into players that haven’t played a
single game for them this year. Johan Santana has been one of the worst
signings in recent memory but the contract will likely end following the 2013
season, Jason Bay is playing for the Mariners while the Mets pay him (some of
it has been deferred), and I just learned recently they are paying Bobby
Bonilla more than $1 million a year from a contract that had been deferred. No
wonder they are struggling to be a competitor. That being said they are close.
Zach Wheeler and Matt Harvey are providing affordable innings and they
have a 3rd highly regarded prospect Noah Syndergaard on the way. David
Wright is in the top 5 in WAR and has stayed healthy the last two years, while the
rest of the offense has really struggled. Their bullpen has a few bright spots
but has been merely average. When they can shed these bad contracts they can
finally start building up their offense
Miami Marlins (Wins: 35, Cost per Win: $1.1
Million) – I am really disappointed with the Marlins. I don’t agree with the deceitfulness they exhibited in
the past two off-seasons. They have two of the best young players in baseball
in Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton but they don’t seem to have a desire to
win. It seems to me that they simply want to turn profits and don’t really care
about competing and thrilling their fan-base. And maybe they did the smart
thing and broke it up when they realized it wouldn't work out but it certainly doesn’t look that
way to me. They’ll have to prove me wrong.
NL Central:
Cincinnati Reds (Wins: 53, Cost per Win: $2.1
Million) – The Reds
are another team with a lot of contributors. Their pitching has some holes in
it but a lot of that has to do with the injury to Cueto and uneven performances
by Homer Bailey. Mike Leake was forced to fight hard to maintain his rotation
spot and has in the process become one of their best pitchers. Matt Latos is a
young stud at only 25 and has performed better in hitter friendly Great
American Ballpark than expected. The bullpen has been below average, which is a surprise but
Aroldis Chapman hasn't been quite as effective as last year. To be fair, that
would have been hard to do. We knew they would hit and they have done exactly
that and Brandon Phillips have fared well producing from the cleanup spot. They
will be around come October.
St Louis Cardinals (Wins: 57, Cost per Win: $2
Million) – The
Cardinals, in my opinion, are the best team in baseball in staying relevant year
after year while managing to maintain a payroll in the middle of the pack. Like
the Rays they seem to have pitchers stock piled. Shelby Miller has been one of
the best rookies this year and they have guys like Michael Wacha and Carlos
Martinez waiting in the wings. That combined with the Cy Young caliber season
that Adam Wainwright has had has led them to the second highest WAR in baseball. Their
hitting has been equally good and that is because they are loaded with great
players including: the best catcher in the game, an established veteran in Beltran who is
playing as well as he ever has, and Allen Craig is an RBI magnet. Their only
weakness is their bullpen but that has a lot to do with the injury to Jason
Motte. Overall, might be the best team in baseball.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Wins: 56, Cost per Win:
$1.2 Million) - To me it
seems that the Pirates have been rebuilding for years. And the organization has
been patient doing it. The two previous years' terrible second halves derailed
their dream of a winning record but the front office stuck with coach Clint
Hurdle, and it seems to be paying off. They have been flirting with the best
record in baseball all year and they are doing it with a minimal payroll that
ranks in the bottom 5. McCutchen is a star, it seems Starling Marte may be too,
Pedro Alvarez has incredible power, and they have a plethora of role players
that have contributed. The pitching has been good with some veterans leading
the way and young Jeff Locke looks like a future star if he isn’t there
already. Taking a chance on Grilli as a closer has proven brilliant. This is
their year.
Milwaukee Brewers (Wins: 38, Cost per Win: $2.3
Million) – The
Brewers have been flat out bad. Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura are maybe the only
bright spots on this team and they have been spectacular sporting WARs above 3.
Two great building blocks if you ask me. Braun has not been very good but I’m
sure his impending suspension has affected his mentality. Taking into account
the whole pitching staff, they are the only team without a pitcher with a WAR
north of 1. Thankfully there payroll doesn’t have much allotted to pitchers
otherwise this would look really bad. Having some nice young offensive pieces
is promising but winning seems a ways away.
Chicago Cubs (Wins: 42, Cost per Win: $2.5
Million) – The
Cubbies just keep peeling back the layers. The problem is they are still being
weighed down but one contract that I am sure has haunted them for years and
that is the perennial $22 million check they write to Alfonso Soriano. They seemed
to be moving in the right direction and then they dumped $52 million into Edwin
Jackson’s lap spread over 4 years. Garza has looked good but he is likely to be
shipped out. Their bullpen averages a WAR below zero. On the offensive side of
the ball Rizzo has taking a very small step back in terms of batting average
and Starlin Castro has taken a large step back and sports a negative WAR.
Thankfully they have a farm system that is becoming well stocked. The future is
not now and might not be in the immediate future.
NL West:
Los Angeles Dodgers (Wins: 47, Cost per Win:
$4.7 Million) - World
Series or bust?! I am pretty sure I heard those words come out of someone’s
mouth. I am going to try really hard to avoid the trade from last year and just
look at this year when it comes to the Dodgers. They are spending more per win
than everyone else in baseball and the results have been uneven. Yasiel Puig
has been a spark plug and makes the front office look brilliant for signing him
through 2018 for only $42 million. Hanley has shown signs of returning to the
production of years past. However, Kemp has been hurt and not great when
healthy, Ethier’s $85 million contract seems straining only one year in, and
rest of the offense hasn’t been great either. My biggest problem with the
Dodgers is that they have 6
starting pitchers making more than $10 million this year. Clayton Kershaw is
maybe the best pitcher in baseball, Grienke has gotten better, and Hyun-Jin Ryu
has impressed and it not one of those 6. They are flat out throwing money away
and they barely reached .500 before the break. I’m not impressed.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Wins: 50, Cost per Win:
$1.8 Million) – Paul
Goldshmidt is a rockstar and Arizona made the impressive move to lock him up
through at least 2018. The rest of the offense has been pretty good. The only
guy I am really concerned about is Miquel Montero. His numbers are way down and
his slugging is almost .100 points down from the last three years. Patrick
Corbin has been spectacular and they have some other young pitchers that have
shown flashes of brilliance. They have a lot of contributors and they are
winning with a limited budget. I like what this team is doing and they are
pretty young.
Colorado Rockies (Wins: 46, Cost per Win: $1.6
Million) – If all they had to do was hit the ball Colorado would be a force every year. Michael
Cuddyer was a great short-term investment and the positive influence and
production have been immeasurably important to their first have success. Tulo
and Cargo have had predictably good seasons and have managed to stay on the
field for the most part. The bullpen has done a nice job. More importantly, the
starting pitching has been surprisingly competitive. I know Chatwood is stranding
runners at a rate that is probably too high to sustain but he has been
impressive. And so has Chacin who has looked great the last few weeks. Whether they
are able to keep it up is obviously not known but this division is surprisingly
up for grabs.
San Diego Padres (Wins: 42, Cost per Win: $1.6
Million) – There is
not much to say about the Padres. They seem to teeter back and forth between
buyers and sellers at this time of the year. They have a lot of potential…… but
only when it comes to swinging the bat. Gyorko has brought positive energy and
production, Evereth Cabrera can’t be stopped on the base paths, and Yonder
Alonso seems poised to break out. That being said, they are near the bottom in
WAR when it comes to starting pitching and bullpen. I mean really bad. Stults,
a journeyman pitcher, has been the lone bright spot in an otherwise depressing
rotation. The biggest problem is I don’t see an impending solution (Fried is only 19 and in lo-A). They are
going to have to get involved in the free agent market if they can’t develop. If they
were really smart the would trade Headley for a large package and move Gyorko
back to third because his bat plays well there. Just my take.
San Francisco Giants (Wins: 43, Cost per Win:
$3.2 Million) - Even
though the Giants are spending way over the league average per win I don’t have
it in me to talk negatively about them. I say that because if they have taught us anything in the last three
years it is that they know how to win. The Giants
haven’t been overly active in the free agent market over the last few years and
I believe I know why: Barry Zito and Tim Lincecum. Zito came to the Giants on a
monster contract that the Giants are still choking on and they are paying
Lincecum $22 million to have a below average WAR. That is pretty much a
reflection of the starting rotation as a whole. Additionally, Matt Cain has
seemingly fallen apart. In short, the strengths for the Giants in previous
years (pitching) has been quite suspect to put it mildly. Meanwhile
their offense is performing well above the league average. That has really been
a product of a team full of contributors. They desperately need their pitching
to reappear or they may spend October away from the field.
Starting Pitching (Avg. WAR)
The average team WAR in this
analysis was 1.22.
Relief Pitching (Avg. WAR)
The average team WAR in this
analysis was .25.
Hitters (Avg. WAR)
The average team WAR for this
analysis was .93.
Payroll by Category for each
team
