By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Contributor -
This season has had more than its share of disappointments
for Angel’s fans and one of the biggest disappointments has been the struggles
of Josh Hamilton at the plate.
Simply put Josh has been swinging at a lot of pitches
outside of the strike zone and, when he does put the ball in play, he has not
hit the ball quite as hard and it has not found as many holes as it normally
has for him in the past.
Additionally, Hamilton has faced an increasing number of
off-speed pitches and has had particular trouble with sinkers, curveballs, and
especially changeups.
So what does this mean now and in the future for Josh? Will
he return to the Hamilton of old and post an on-base plus slugging over 1.000?
Or will he slip further, forcing the Angels to push him into a really expensive
bench role at some future, point in time?
The answer appears to be somewhere in-between and let me
explain why.
Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
For those of you unfamiliar with BABIP, please take the time
to read these two articles, here
and here.
In seven big league seasons Josh Hamilton has a career
average .327 BABIP. This is a typical number you would see when you examine
really good hitters and/or decent hitters with good speed.
In 2013, Hamilton currently has a BABIP of .257, which is 70
points below his career average, above.
This can indicate a number of different things but it
appears to be related to four main areas: Pitch recognition, batted ball data, park
factors, and defensive shifts.
Clearly one of the biggest issues is Hamilton’s pitch
recognition. All year opposing pitchers have been throwing him low and outside
or high and outside and Josh has been swinging all day long.
In particular Hamilton has had trouble with off-speed stuff.
He has been swinging and missing at a number of sinkers, curveballs, and
changeups this year that have led to weak contact and/or strikeouts.
Opposing pitchers throw the off speed stuff to Josh so that
when he swings (thinking fastball) the head of his bat goes further through the
zone and either misses the ball completely or makes weaker contact with it in
front of the plate hitting it to the right side of the diamond.
If Josh can reacquire some of the plate discipline he
displayed in previous years this would go a long way towards reducing his weak
contact.
He needs to recognize the off speed pitches and start his
swing a split second later to keep the meat of the bat in the zone as the ball
crosses the plate and drive it up the middle or even to the opposite field.
Another factor is Hamilton’s reduced line drive rate, which
is down almost 1% from his career average. In the ESPN BABIP article (link is
above), the average league BABIP for line drives, for 2012, was .714.
If you look strictly at his batted ball data (Line drive,
groundball, and fly ball rates) from a 2012 BABIP point-of-view, that 1%
equates to an approximate drop of 10 points in BABIP. The reduction in line
drives leads to more ground balls and fly balls.
It is not the primary part of his problem but it does
contribute to his BABIP issues. Hitters who smack line drives and make hard
contact (such as Mike Trout) will see a lot of hits fall into the gaps in the
outfield and through holes in the infield.
There are also park factors to consider. According to ESPN
data, Arlington ballpark had an average BABIP of .311 for last year in 2012.
Anaheim stadium had an average .290 BABIP last season.
Moving from one stadium to another for half of the season
would account for an approximate 10 point BABIP swing in Hamilton’s overall
total for the year.
Finally, Josh has been the target of several defensive
shifts throughout the season. This is a consequence of his struggles with pitch
recognition and chasing after off speed pitches, resulting in weak contact into
the shift.
This weak contact to the right side of the diamond convinces
opposing managers to shift their defense, accordingly, to increase the odds of
throwing Hamilton out at first or catching a line drive or fly ball to that
side of the infield.
If Hamilton can work on his approach and hit more line
drives up the middle or to the opposite field, teams will be forced to stop
putting the shift on him almost every at-bat and that will create more
opportunities for the ball to find a hole, which can, and should, result in a corresponding
increase in BABIP.
More Batted Ball Data and Injuries
Back in early August FanGraphs ran an article (found here)
on the biggest decliners in HR/FB (Home Run/Fly Ball) ratios and batted ball
distances from last year to this season.
Josh Hamilton, unfortunately, was on that list with an
overall reduction in his HR/FB ratio of 25.6% down to 13.3%! Yikes!
His average batted ball distance dropped 26.43 feet from 2012
and, in 2013, is actually below the average for the league.
As Mike Podhorzer’s article indicates, Josh has dealt with a
variety of moderate injuries throughout the season to his wrists, back, and
ankles. Any one of these, or some combination, could be contributing to his
problems at the plate in addition to those mentioned above.
Conclusion
One thing that is clear is that Josh Hamilton is probably
not as bad as he has been in 2013.
Although BABIP doesn’t correlate well from year to year it
does provide a snapshot of whether a player is outperforming or underperforming
from their career average (which does correlate well).
It can also point towards increased or reduced contact with
the ball and even hints at a player’s luckiness or unluckiness with where the
balls land in the field of play.
After examining some of the contributing factors above you
can see that the change in stadiums and the reduction in Josh’s line drive rate
accounts for about a 20 point reduction in his overall BABIP. However that
still doesn’t account for the wide gap he has experienced this year.
If Hamilton can reacquire some of his plate discipline and
pitch recognition he should be able to see the ball better and make better
contact up the middle and to the opposite field.
By doing this he will help reduce and/or eliminate the
defensive shifts which will force the opposing defense to make the tough plays
if they want to get Josh out.
Hamilton’s days as a premium middle of the order bat are
declining, but they are not gone. Unless he experiences additional, persistent
injuries it would not be unexpected to see Hamilton return to about 70-90% of
his formal self (pre-2012) during his remaining contract years.
Heck we may even get lucky and see Hamilton go on one of his
hot streaks!
Josh was, and still is, a talented baseball player. Look for
him to get healthy in 2014 and focus on improved pitch recognition especially
with off speed pitches. The last part is the key for him to regain his form and
provide production and protection in the middle of the Angels lineup.
